新疆能源消费碳排放现状及增长效应分析

为了有针对性地分析新疆能源碳排放的增长机理，分析新疆能源利用现状、碳排放总量、三大产业碳排放的变化趋势、碳排放强度、人均碳排放等变量，基于扩展的Kaya恒等式建立因素分解模型，采用LMDI分解方法对能源碳排放进行因素分解。定量分析1985—2009年经济规模、人口规模、排放系数、能源结构、能源消费强度、产业结构等6个因素对新疆碳排放增量的影响。研究发现，经济规模效应、人口规模效应是正向驱动因素，能源结构与能源消费强度效应对碳排放具有抑制作用，产业结构的负效应表现最为突出。最后结合新疆实际提出了相应的减排政策建议。

SITUATION AND FACTORS DECOMPOSITION OF CARBON EMISSION IN XINJIANG`S ENERGY CONSUMPTION

This paper, aiming at the reasons for Xinjiangs carbon emission growth, analyzes energy use situation, the amount of carbon emissions, emission trend of three industries, carbon emission intensity, per capita carbon emission, and uses LMDI according to the established factor decomposition model to decompose the carbon emission factors. It also quantitatively analyses economic development, population, emission factors, energy structure, energy use intensity, industrial structure from 1985-2009. The results indicate that economic development and population growth are the dominant factors that lead to the increase in carbon emissions. Adjustment of energy structure and industrial structure, and reduction of energy use intensity help reduce the amount of carbon emissions. This paper presents suggestions in carbon emission reduction.