| 灰色Verhulst模型参数估计的一种新算法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘威,徐伟.灰色Verhulst模型参数估计的一种新算法[J].计算机仿真,2008,25(11). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘威 徐伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北工业大学理学院,陕西西安,710072 |
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| 摘 要： | 灰色Vethulst模型主要用来描述数据具有饱和状态的过程,模型中的参数估计一般都采用最小二乘准则,而模型检验采用与最小一乘相关的准则,提出基于最小一乘准则估计模型参数,统一了模型参数估计和精度检验的准则.得到新的预测公式;然后采用新的群体智能算法-粒子群算法来求解此最小一乘的参数.由于算法避开了求解背景值.在非等时距情况下同样适用.数值计算结果表明,用文中方法确定模型参数是精确有效的,提高了模型的预测精度,扩大了模型的适用范围.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 最小一乘法则 粒子群算法 背景值 |
A New Algorithm for Estimating Parameters of Grey Verhulst Model |
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| LIU Wei,XU Wei.A New Algorithm for Estimating Parameters of Grey Verhulst Model[J].Computer Simulation,2008,25(11). |
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| Authors: | LIU Wei XU Wei |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Wei,XU Wei(Department of Applied Mathematics,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an Shanxi 710072,China) |
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| Abstract: | Grey Verhulst model is used to describe the data that are saturated.Estimating model parameters usually adopts least square criteria,but testing model precision often uses the criteria correlated with least absolute criteria.In this paper,aimed at the disaccord of criteria in estimating the parameters and testing model precision,the least absolute criteria are offered to estimate the parameters of grey Verhulst model.The new grey prediction formula is presented and it can also used in unequal internal becau... |
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| Keywords: | Grey model Least absolute criteria Particle swarm optimization Background value |
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