基于贝叶斯网络的导弹武器系统人因故障定量分析

为提高导弹武器系统的安全性,在确定影响号手操作因素的基础上,建立导弹武器系统人因故障分析的贝叶斯网络模型。介绍贝叶斯网络,探讨人因失误的影响因素与机理,通过实例分析,结合专家经验知识对装备人因故障的概率进行建模与评估。结果表明:该分析方法求解获得的装备人误故障概率与装备统计数据符合性良好,提出的量化评估模型正确有效。

Quantitative Human Faults Analysis of Missile Weapon System Based on Bayesian Network

To improve safety of missile weapon systems, and based on ascertaining affecting factors of human operating, establish human fault analysis model of missile weapon system based on Bayesian network. Introduce Bayesian network, discuss the human fault influence factor and mechanism. Through example analysis, combine expert experience and knowledge to establish model and evaluate equipment human fault probability. The result shows that the human fault probability and equipment statistic data were conform by analysis method. The quantitative evaluation model is correct and effective.