人的可靠性分析中不确定性的影响、来源以及处理

概率安全分析 (PSA)在管理决策中的作用不断增加 ,要求尽量减少PSA的不确定性。人的可靠性分析 (HRA)作为PSA的一部分 ,是PSA结果不确定性的一个重要来源。调查分析了核电站PSA结果中HRA不确定性的影响。通过分析所应用的HRA模型、数据和实施过程 ,讨论了HRA不确定性的可能来源 ,以及减少这些不确定性的一些方法和措施。考虑到HRA不确定性存在的必然性 ,讨论了在PSA中处理HRA不确定性的方法。

Influence, sources and treatment of the uncertainties in human reliability analysis

As the increasing role of the probabilistic safe ty assessment (PSA) in the plant regulation, the uncertainties of PSA need to be n arrowed as possible. Human reliability analysis (HRA), as an essential part of P SA, is an important source of the uncertainties of the PSA results. The paper di scusses the influence of the uncertainties in HRA upon the PSA results. Then thr ough the discussion of the HRA models, data, and process, the possible causes of the HRA uncertainties are identified, and some measures are forwarded to reduce the uncertainties. In view of the impossibility to fully avoid the uncertaintie s, the treatment method could be adopt in the PSA is discussed in the end of the paper.