气象数值预报产品对大气输运模拟中迁移轨迹的影响分析

在搜集整理2013年1—12月NCEP再分析、NCEP预报、ECMWF再分析三种不同类型、不同空间分辨气象数据的基础上,通过实现数据解析与预处理,进而运用大尺度轨迹模式模拟,对不同类型数据及不同空间分辨水平数据模拟的轨迹迁移结果进行统计分析。研究结论表明,不同来源、不同空间分辨水平气象数据模拟的气载放射性污染物迁移轨迹有一定的相关性,但相关性较差,平均轨迹末端相对水平迁移偏差大于50%;不同来源、相同空间分辨水平气象数据模拟的轨迹则相关性较好,平均轨迹末端相对水平迁移偏差小于20%。同时指出,不同来源全球气象预报和再分析产品的长期积累,对大气输运模拟中轨迹迁移的影响研究具有重要意义。

Impact analysis of meteorological data forecast on trajectory migration in atmospheric transport processes

Statistical analysis of trajectory migration simulation results from different types of data and different spatial resolution level were carried out with three different types and different basic spatial resolution meteorological data i.e. NCEP reanalysis data, NCEP forecast data and ECMWF reanalysis data from January to December in 2013. The conclusion shows that different sources and different spatial resolution meteorological data have certain correlation, though it is weak with the average horizontal migration deviation of the end of trajectory greater than 50%. Different sources of meteorological data with same spatial resolution have better correlation in trajectory migration simulation. The average horizontal migration deviation of the end of trajectory is less than 20%. The long-term accumulation of different source of global weather forecast and reanalysis products are significantly important to the study on trajectory migration in atmospheric transport simulation.