近30a甘肃天水气候资源变化对杏产量影响评估

气候变暖导致气候资源配置发生变化,由此而引发的农业气象灾害导致果树作物发育进程、果树产量出现较大波动。利用统计学方法对甘肃天水近30 a气候资源变化对杏树产量影响研究和分析,得出20世纪90年代以来杏树花芽膨大、现蕾、开花期较80年代提前6~7 d,果实成熟期提前10 d左右;由此而引发的农业气象灾害以初秋9月下旬、后冬1月下旬至2月上旬、花前3月上旬温暖干旱气候和花果期4月上中旬低温干旱气候对杏树产量形成影响最大,年际变化除后冬干旱灾害呈明显加重趋势,为本世纪影响杏树产量形成的主要农业气象灾害外,其它灾害在本世纪虽略有减轻,但危害程度仍明显重于80年代;10 a平均气候产量动态相对偏差百分率90年代(与80年代相比)减少29.9个百分点,本世纪减少7.8个百分点。评估有灾17 a,实况(轻、中、中大和大灾) 16 a,评估准确率94%,其中中灾和中大灾害评估准确率均达100%,评估效果比较理想,对农业防灾减灾有一定的指导意义。

Impact assessment of the Tianshui apricot yield under the climate resources change background in recent 30 a

Along with the global climate warming, the rising temperatures, decreasing precipitation and light, heat, water allocation of climatic resources have taken place in significant changes at Tianshui Prefecture of Gansu Province since the 1990s, agricultural meteorological disasters such as drought, and low temperatures lead to fruit trees growth process and yield appear larger fluctuation, especially the apricot tree growth and development are more susceptible to the influence of the temperature rise caused by production due to the tall tree body, deep root system distribution and growth cycle is long. To achieve reasonable development of climate resources and effectively prevent meteorological disasters from the maximum losses or reduction fruit production, more studies on climate resources change impacting on the apricot trees yield nearly 30 a have been analyzed by statistical method. It is concluded that since 1990s the almond trees bud, budding and flowering period advanced 6-7 d in the 1980s, fruit ripening by around 10 d; Agricultural meteorological disasters occurring from early Autumn in late September to the next Winter in late January to early February, warm drought climate before flowers in early March and low temperature drought climate in early April of the flowering fruit bearing stage caused the greatest impacts on the almond trees yield, drought disasters in the later winter showed a trend of obvious increase for this century, other disasters were slightly reduced, but the damage was still significantly heavier than the 1980s; 10 a average climatic output dynamic relative percentage deviation(compared to the 1980s)decreased by 29.9% in the 1990s, reduced 7.8% in the 21^st Century. It is assessed that evaluated disasters are in 17 years but actually happened(light, medium, large and catastrophe)in 16 years, the accuracy is 94%, in which the evaluation accuracy of medium and large disasters 100%, evaluation effect is ideal, it has certain guiding significance for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.