闽台能源消费变化与驱动力对比研究

为探究处于不同发展阶段地区能源消费行为的差异性,对闽台地区能源消费变化及其驱动力进行了对比研究,结论表明:①近30 a来,闽台两地能源消费总量差距呈现"扩大→缩小"特征,并于2008年福建省能源消费总量首次超过台湾,但台湾省能源效率变化呈现乘幂式增长,能源效率远高于福建省同期水平,且能源消费结构较福建省更趋多元,优质高效能源占到80%以上;②闽台两地能源消费变化主要驱动因素大致相似,但亦存在显著差异:一方面,除受与福建省相同的驱动因素影响外,台湾省能源消费变化还受第三产业结构比重、能源效率因素等影响;另一方面,R&D投入占GDP比重、人均GDP、第二产业比重等驱动因素的作用方向在闽台两地却正好相反,其中,福建能源消费受驱动因素冲击后呈现增加态势,而台湾省则反之;③除受地区源消费传统影响外,闽台地区能源消费受驱动因素的影响程度也具有差异性:福建省能源消费变化受社会机动化发展驱动影响最大,经济发展、科技水平提高次之,第二产业比重、人口总量增加影响最小;台湾省社会机动化发展的能源消费驱动影响最大,科技投入增加、能源效率提高两个驱动因素的影响次之,人口总量增加、经济发展和产业结构升级影响最小。

A Comparative Analysis of Changes in Energy Consumption of Fujian and Taiwan and Their Driving Factors

In order to probe into the difference in energy consumption between regions in different developing period,the paper studies the changes in energy consumption of Fujian and Taiwan and their driving factors.The results indicate that: 1) The energy consumption gap between Fujian and Taiwan got greater then less,and Fujian consumed more energy than Taiwan for the first time in 2008.However,the energy efficiency of Taiwan grew by the mode of Power Function,which was far higher than Fujian.And the energy consumption stucture in Taiwan was more pluralistic.The share of clean and efficient energy in the final energy consumption accounted for over 80%.2) The main driving factors of energy consumption change were roughly similar in both Fujian and Taiwan,but there were statistically differences between them.On the one hand,the change of energy consumption in Taiwan had more driving causes such as the proportion of tertiary industry and energy efficiency besides the same factors with Fujian.On the other hand,the ratio of spending on R&D to GDP,per capita GDP,the proportion of secondary industry and energy consumption had the opposite effects on the regions.The energy consumption in Fujian showed the trend of growth after driven by above factors,but Taiwan was in adverse.3) Energy consumption of both regions was similarly affected by the consumption tradition,but the same factors had impacts differently in the two regions.In Fujian,the motorization influence was greatest,then followed by economic development and the rise of scientific-technological input,the proportion of secondary industry and population rising accounted for the least affect.In Taiwan,the motorization influence was most obvious,then the rise of scientific-technological input and energy efficiency took the second place,the population rising,economic development and industrial structural upgrade had the lowwest influence.