基于GWR模型的城市住宅地价的时空演变研究——以江苏省为例

江苏省地价总体变化特征分析的基础上,构建城市住宅地价的GWR模型,对1997、2005和2008年3个时间点的江苏省城市住宅地价影响因素的空间变异特征进行了探究,揭示了各因素因子对住宅地价的影响程度和区域差异,丰富和发展了城市地价影响因素时空变化规律的理论研究。研究结果表明:①距中心城市距离对住宅地价的影响呈负相关,3年回归系数绝对值的平均值逐渐增大且高值分布区域逐渐扩大;②GDP与住宅地价呈正相关,GDP对住宅地价影响最大地区逐渐北移,且高值区域逐渐减小;③城镇化率与住宅地价呈正相关,从空间看,沿江地区是苏南、苏中两大经济板块的纽带,对住宅地价影响变大,从时间看,城镇化率对住宅地价的影响逐步减小;④对外交通状况对住宅地价贡献为正,南部地区回归系数较高,向北系数逐渐减小,从时间角度看,其影响程度逐步增大;⑤从业人口数量对住宅地价的贡献为正,南部地区回归系数较高,向北回归系数绝对值逐渐减小,从业人口数量对苏南影响比苏北大;⑥房地产投资总额北部地区回归系数较高,向南系数逐渐减小,苏北房地产投资总额对住宅地价影响高于苏南地区。

Research on Spatio-temporal Variation of Urban Residential Land Price based on GWR Model: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

Based on the analysis of general variation characteristics of land price in Jiangsu Province,this article attempts to build a GWR model for residential land price in urban areas designed to study the factors responsible and the spatial variation characteristics in 1997,2005 and 2008.The study reveals the degrees of the influential factors and regional differences on land prices,and explores the theoretical research of spatio-temporal variation laws of the factors that contribute to urban land price.The results show: 1) the distance from a central city to residential lands produces negative impacts on the land price,and the average of the absolute value of the regression coefficient increases gradually over the three years with a gradual expansion of high value areas;2) GDP is positively correlated to residential land price,and the regions where GDP has the most powerful influences on residential land price shift gradually to the northern part of Jiangsu Province;and the number of areas with high value reduces gradually;3) urbanization rate shows a positive correlation with residential land price,in the sense that from spatial perspective.In the areas along Changjiang River which link the central and southern parts of Jiangsu Province,urbanization rate exerts increasing impacts on residential land price,whereas,from temporal perspective,urbanization rate produces decreasing effects on residential land price;4) outbound traffic condition shows a positive impact on residential land price,and the regression coefficient in the southern part is fairly high but gradually decreases from the south to the north;from temporal perspective,its influence shows an upward trend;5) the number of employees is positively correlated to residential land price;the regression coefficient in the southern part of Jiangsu Province is fairly high and the absolute value of regression coefficient gradually increases from the south to the north;besides,the number of employees produces more effects on the southern part than on the northern part of Jiangsu Province;6) the regression coefficient of the total real estate investment in the northern part is fairly high,and it gradually declines from the northern part to the southern part;the total real estate investment is more influential to the residential land price of the northern part than to that of the southern part of Jiangsu Province.