基于树轮的天山北坡三屯河流域过去146a降水变化

通过对新疆天山北坡三屯河流域2个采点的云杉树轮宽度标准化年表与小渠子和大西沟气象站月降水相关普查分析发现,区域森林中下部林缘年表与小渠子气象站上年7月至当年6月的降水呈显著正相关,其相关系数为0.694（p〈0.000 1）,且具有明确的树木生理学意义。利用区域森林中下部林缘年表序列可较好地重建小渠子气象站146 a来上年7月至当年6月降水量。对天山北坡三屯河流域过去146 a降水变化特征分析表明：天山北坡三屯河流域降水大体经历了6个偏干阶段和6个偏湿阶段,具有2、4、7、14、26 a的变化准周期,1942年和1945年分别是三屯河流域甚至天山山区较大范围内过去146 a的降水最大年份和最小年份,降水的长期变化与天山山区变化趋势有很大的相似性。

The Precipitation Variability in Santun River basin over past 146 years, base on tree-ring

Single correlation calculation between the standard chronologies of tree-ring width in two sites and precipitation of Xiaoquzi and Daxigou meteorological stations found that the correlations were significant among standard chronologies of tree-ring width and precipitation from July last year to June current year in Santun river basin on the North Slope of Middle Tianshan Mountains. Mining Miaoergou mine and Santun river standardization chronologies of tree-ring width for the region received the regional tree-ring standardized chronology in the mid-lower limit of forest. And it has distinct physiological significance with a maximum correlation of 0.694(p<0.001). Using the regional tree-ring standardized chronology reconstructed a 146-year precipitation series. It was verified that the reconstructed precipitation series was reliable. Analyzing the 146a reconstructed precipitation series indicated: There were 6 dry periods bellow its mean and 6 wet periods above its mean, and there have significant change cycles of 2a, 4a, 7a, 14a and 26a in the long-term precipitation series. The 1942 is maximum precipitation year and the 1945 is minimum precipitation year over the past 146a in Santun river basin even throughout the Tianshan Mountains.