| 最优化方法在石化项目不确定性分析中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 马记钊.最优化方法在石化项目不确定性分析中的应用[J].当代石油石化,2013(7):24-28. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马记钊 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石化工程建设有限公司丁程造价部,北京100101 |
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| 摘 要： | 最优化方法在石化项目中具有广泛的应用。结合具体石化项目经济评价案例，以风险量化为目标，从选择决策目标、寻找决策变量、设定约束条件三个方面入手，通过建立最优化数量模型，详细论述了如何运用最优化原理和方法分析不确定性问题。分析表明，运用最优化原理的分析方法可以更全面地评估项目的风险承受能力，为投资决策提供支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 最优化方法 数量模型 经济评价 不确定性 风险量化 |
The Application of Optimization Method in Uncertainty Analysis of a Petrochemical Project |
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| Ma Jizhao.The Application of Optimization Method in Uncertainty Analysis of a Petrochemical Project[J].Petroleum & Petrochemical Today,2013(7):24-28. |
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| Authors: | Ma Jizhao |
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| Affiliation: | Ma Jizhao(SEI Cost Estimating Department, Beijing 100101, China) |
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| Abstract: | Optimization method is widely used in petrochemical projects. Combining with a concrete case of petrochemical project economic evaluation, this paper introduces the principle of the method and brings its dea which contains objectives, decision variables, constraints to uncertainty analysis in economic evaluation. The study aims to risk quantification and the result indicates that the application of optimization method gives a more comprehensive risk estimation of the project so as to support investment decision-making. |
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| Keywords: | optimization method quantitative model economic evaluation uncertainty risk quantification |
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