基于SEIR模型视角的重大公共卫生事件中伪科学网络谣言的传播治理：以新冠肺炎疫情为例

 新型冠状病毒肺炎防疫工作进入关键时期，而期间大量滋生的伪科学网络谣言导致各地广泛出现盲目抢购、囤货等不良社会事件，严重影响疫情防控与社会正常秩序。以新冠肺炎疫情为例，在总结梳理国内外学者对伪科学、网络谣言等定义的基础上，给出适用本文的伪科学网络谣言的定义；选取本次疫情中影响较大的4个伪科学网络谣言，收集其在新浪微博传播过程中的数据，分析伪科学网络谣言在疫情中的传播特点；以SEIR模型为基础，综合考虑政府干预滞后性、个体信息接受从众效应、谣言传播特点等对模型进行合理改进，并通过数值实验对重大公共卫生事件中的伪科学网络谣言传播机制进一步研究；最后，基于前文分析从不同角度对重大公共卫生事件中伪科学网络谣言的传播治理提出针对性对策建议。

Spread and governance of pseudo-science Internet rumors in major public healthy emergencies based on SEIR model: A case study of COVID-19 epidemic

By 18:00 on February 16, 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed cases caused by COVID-19 epidemic in China has reached 68,592. The epidemic control work is at a critical period. However, the proliferation of the pseudo-science Internet rumors during the COVID-19 epidemic cause widespread adverse social events, such as the blind rush purchases and hoarding, which seriously affect the epidemic control and the normal social order. Taking the COVID-19 epidemic as an example, this paper reviews the definitions of the pseudo-science and Internet rumors proposed by domestic and foreign scholars. Four major pseudo-science Internet rumors that have had a greater impact in this epidemic, and the data on Sina Weibo(microblog) are used as examples to analyze the spread characteristics of the pseudo-science Internet rumors. Based on the SEIR model, this paper comprehensively analyzes factors such as the lag of official intervention, the bandwagon effect of individual information acceptance, and the spread characteristics of rumors, and the mechanism of the pseudo-science Internet rumors in major public health emergencies through numerical experiments. Finally, this paper proposes countermeasures for the pseudo-science Internet rumors in major public healthy emergencies from various angles.