交通事件影响下的路径行程时间变化分析

为了对交通管理系统中的事件管理提供可靠的决策依据,针对持续期为数天的交通事件,考虑事件发生后出行者日常路径选择的随机性,基于路径流量联合概率分布的动态调整过程,建立了描述路网系统路径行程时间变化的随机动态交通分配模型.并用算例网络验证了本文建立模型的可行性.算例研究结果表明:交通事件持续期每增加10 d,持续期内路径的平均行程时间增加0.24%;与普通路段相比,事件发生在关键路段导致平均行程时间增加3.07%; 路段通行能力每下降10%,平均行程时间增加2.53%;不同事发路段对路网系统在事件结束后恢复到均衡状态所需时间的差别显著,关键路段通行时间的恢复约为普通路段的4倍. 

Analysis of Route Travel Time Variation of Road Network Suffering Traffic Incidents

Analyzing route travel time variation of road network suffering traffic incidents can provide reliable decision supports for the incident management of advanced traffic management systems. Taking into consideration the randomness of travelers' daily route choice when incidents with a duration of several days occurs, a random dynamical assignment model was proposed to describe the route travel time variation of the road network system under such occasion based on the dynamical adjustment process with route flows subjecting to a joint probability distribution. Then, the model was applied to an example network to confirm its feasibility. The results show that when the traffic incident duration prolongs 10 more days, the average route travel time increases 0.24%. Compared with normal links, the critical link that suffers the traffic incident causes the average travel time to increase 3.07%: When the link capacity degrades 10%, the average travel time increases 2.53%. The necessary time for the network system recovering to equilibrium after the clearance of incident is greatly affected by the link with traffic incident. The recovery time of the critical link suffering incident is about 4 times longer than that of normal links.