T106产品夏季降水概率预报自动化系统

利用１０６格点场资料，构造能反映本地天气动力学牲的组合预报因子，对预报时效场进行叠加处理，对预报着急区格点资料取其均值或极值。预报因子和预报量均采用非线性０、１化自理。用最优子集回归建立降水预报方程用多因子概率权重回归其降水概率。系统从资料采集到输出概率结果在５８６以上微机上实现全自动化，预报结果客观、定量。

The Automatic System of Precipitation Probability Forecast with T106 Products

The nonlinear predictors which reflect the features of local weather dynamics could be developed by the system of T106 products,and it can manipulate time internal with superposing method.The correlation could also be built with the mean values and extremes of grid date within the forecast area togather with the amount of precipitation. The predictors and predicatands were all manipnlated with 0,1 nonlinearization.The prognostic equation of precipitation with optimal subset regression was built,and the precipitation probability with multipal factorial probability weighing regression was forecasted. The system was all automated in 586 computer from data collection to output of probobility results.Its forecast conclusion was objective and quantitative,and it became a major tool of objective precipitation probability forecast.