安徽省中南部小麦赤霉病气象等级预报方法研究

针对安徽省农业气象业务服务中小麦赤霉病气象等级预报模型精度不高问题,基于安徽省中南部滁州、庐江、池州和宣城4个代表站历年小麦赤霉病病穗率、发育期及对应气象资料,采用线性相关、回归分析等方法,建立基于雨日和雨量的综合降水指数气象等级预报模型,并对模型进行拟合检验和预测检验。结果表明滁州地区小麦赤霉病发生关键为始穗前5d至始穗后25d、庐江为始穗前8d至始穗后20d、池州为始穗前7d至始穗后24d、宣城为始穗前4d至始穗后24d。对建立的区域小麦赤霉病气象等级预报模型进行拟合检验和预测检验发现:滁州地区预测模型的拟合准确率和预测准确率分别为86.8%和92.0%,庐江分别为87.6%和70.0%,池州分别为85.6%和88.0%,宣城分别为88.3%和84.0%。因此,本研究建立的区域小麦赤霉病气象等级预报模型可用于安徽省中南部农业气象业务服务。

Research on the method of meteorological grade forecast of wheat scab in south central of Anhui Province

Aiming to solve the problem that the wheat scab meteorological grade forecast model in the agrometeorological service of Anhui Province was not accurate enough, this study established a meteorological grade forecast model with comprehensive precipitation index which was based on the number of rainy days and precipitation, through the methods of linear correlation and regression analysis, using the historical data including percentage of diseased panicles of wheat scab, phenology data and meteorological data during corresponding period on Chuzhou, Lujiang, Chizhou and Xuancheng in south central of Anhui Province. And the model was tested by fitting and prediction. The results showed that the key period of wheat scab was from the 5th day before the initial heading stage to the 25th day after that for Chuzhou, and for Lujiang was, from the 8th day before that to the 20th day after that, and for Chizhou was from the 7th day before that to the 24th day after that, and the last for Xuancheng was from the 4th day before that to the 24th day after that. Fitting test and prediction test were carried out for the established regional meteorological grade forecast model of wheat scab. The results indicated that the fitting accuracy of Chuzhou, Lujiang, Chizhou and Xuancheng were 86. 8%, 87. 6%, 85. 6% and 88. 3% respectively, while the prediction accuracy of them were 92. 0%, 70. 0%, 88. 0% and 84. 0% respectively. Therefore the regional forecast model established for wheat scab meteorological grade could be used for the agrometeorological service in south and south central Anhui Province.