基于Logistic模型的中国各省碳排放预测

在“碳排放量与能源消费成正比”假设的基础上，对中国30个省区2011～2020年碳排放进行了预测。首先对中国30个省区1987～2010年的历史累计排放量和人均累计排放量进行计算,依据历史累计排放量和人均累计排放量两个指标，运用K-均值聚类分析法将中国各省区碳排放分成了5类。分别绘出5类区域中各省的历年碳排放量曲线，并进行数据分析，发现：以2002年为界线，2002年前后两个时段中国各省区碳排放变化差异很大。这一现象说明2002年以前的各省碳排放趋势并不能表征未来年份各省的碳排放。在此结论的基础上，构建了碳排放量增长的Logistic预测模型，并以2002～2010年碳排放数据为样本数据，对2011～2020年中国各省区碳排放进行了预测。为了验证预测模型的精确性，利用Logistic预测模型对中国30个省区2002～2010年的碳排放进行了预测，并将预测值与实际排放值进行比较发现，除了宁夏自治区的误差达1458%外，其他地区的误差均在7%以下。除宁夏外的中国各省区预测误差的平均值为622%，由此验证了Logistic预测模型的精确性。同时，也说明对中国30个省区2011～2020年碳排放的预测值具有较高的可信性。本研究为中国各省未来碳排放政策的制定提供了方法与数据支持

FORECAST CARBON EMISSIONS OF PROVINCES IN CHINA BASED ON LOGISTIC MODEL

With the hypothesis that carbon emission is proportional to energy consumption,this research calculated gross and per capita carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China from 1987 to 2010,and divided provincial carbon emissions into five types by using K means clustering analysis.When provincial data curves of carbon emissions over past 20 years were drawn and analyzed,it is found that there was a dramatic change in the developing trend of carbon emissions around 2002.This phenomenon implicates that the data curve of carbon emissions before 2002 could not characterize the future trends.Therefore,data of carbon emissions from 2002 to 2010 were employed,based on the Logistic model,to forecast and analyze provincial carbon emissions from 2011 to 2020.Compared forecasted data with actual ones,the margin of error in all provinces surveyed was below 7%, except for Ningxia 1458%.The average forecast error of provincial carbon emissions except for Ningxia was 622%.This result implies the accuracy of the Logistic prediction model.