| 徐州农业生产面临气象灾害风险的评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙光东,蔡勤,栾承淼.徐州农业生产面临气象灾害风险的评估[J].气象科学,2012,32(S1):105-109. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙光东 蔡勤 栾承淼 |
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| 作者单位： | 徐州市气象局, 江苏 徐州 221002;徐州市气象局, 江苏 徐州 221002;徐州市气象局, 江苏 徐州 221002 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据徐州市历年来各种气象灾害对农业造成影响的资料, 应用信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型, 对徐州地区洪涝、干旱、风雹和霜冻等气象灾害进行风险评估, 并对客观风险评估值进行分析, 得到与历史上实际灾害发生的概率较吻合的结论, 使用这种方法为我们开展气象灾害风险评估提供了客观的数据。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象灾害 农业 风险评估 信息扩散 |
Risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters in Xuzhou |
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| SUN Guangdong,CAI Qin and LUAN Chengmiao.Risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters in Xuzhou[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2012,32(S1):105-109. |
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| Authors: | SUN Guangdong CAI Qin and LUAN Chengmiao |
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| Affiliation: | Xuzhou Meteorological Bureau, Jiangsu Xuzhou 221002, China;Xuzhou Meteorological Bureau, Jiangsu Xuzhou 221002, China;Xuzhou Meteorological Bureau, Jiangsu Xuzhou 221002, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the impact information of the meteorological disasters in agriculture in Xuzhou, according to the fuzzy mathematics theory model of information diffusion, risk assessment is carried out during floods, drought, hail and frost. By analyzing objective risk evaluation value, it shows that the result is more consistent with the actual probability of disaster. This method provides us with objective data for meteorological disaster risk assessment. |
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| Keywords: | Meteorological disaster Agriculture Risk assessment Information diffusion |
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