北京市未来劳动力供给趋势的预测与分析

劳动力的供给涉及到人口规模、年龄结构变动以及劳动参与率的变化,虽然关于北京市劳动适龄人口(劳动力资源)方面研究的预测比较多,但由于北京市劳动参与率的数据和分析缺乏,因此劳动力供给的预测研究相对较少。而且相关的预测多是根据2000年普查资料为基础进行的,预测结果与这几年的实际情况出入较大。为此,以2005年最新人口和劳动就业数据为基础,采用联合国PEOPLE人口预测软件,并在调整分析劳动参与率数据历史变动的基础上,全面系统地对北京市未来劳动力供给的动态变化趋势进行了多方案的预测。研究结果显示,北京市的劳动力供给在经过一个时期的增长后,绝对规模和比重都将出现下降,提高生育水平无助于改变这种状况,而人口的迁移如果规模不是足够大也难以改变这种状态。劳动参与率的下降进一步加剧了这种劳动力供给即将下降的趋势。

The Prediction and Analysis of Labor Supply of Beijing in the Future

The labor supply is commonly determined by population scale,age structure and labor participation ratio.Some analyses have been made on the future change of labor supply in Beijing.Because of the lack of the data of labor participation ratio,however,few special prediction has been made on labor supply in Beijing.The analyses and predictions that have been made focus on the labor resources which are the labor-age population,and the data used by those analyses are 2000 population census data,which have been considered to be out of date for the rapid change of labor status.It predicts the various possible changes under different scenarios,by using the new data from 2005 yearbook of China,the population sample data,and the PEOPLE software from population fund committee of the United Nations.