近52年巴音布鲁克山区日降水变化趋势与突变特征分析

利用巴音布鲁克气象站1960-2011年逐日降水资料，统计了逐年降水日数、降水量、以及5—9月不同量级降雨日数、降雨量，进而得到暖季不同降雨雨强，运用线性趋势系数、M—K检验及滑动71检验等方法分析了巴音布鲁克山区降水的变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明：近52a来巴音布鲁克山区年降水量和降水日数呈明显的增加趋势，气候倾向率分别为9．5mm／10a、3．2d／10a，然而年降水量和降水日数的增加主要源自冷季而非暖季，年降水量与降水强度关系更密切。巴音布鲁克山区暖季5～9月降雨量占年降水量的八成以上，暖季微雨日显著减少，小雨事件对年降水量的贡献率减弱，大雨和暴雨的贡献率增加。冷季降水量和降水日数显著增加，冷季降水日数在1975年附近发生增多突变，冷季降水量在2003年后发生增多突变。

Analysis on Tendency and Abrupt change of Daily Precipitation in Recent 52 Years in Bayinbuluk Mountains

Using daily precipitation data from Bayinbuluk weather stations during 1960 - 2011 the precipitation with its day number as well as the different levels of rainy days and rainfall intensity from May to September were obtained . The mean tendency and abrupt change of day-precipitation were analyzed mainly based on the methods of linear trend coefficient and Mann-Kendal test. The results show that in recent 52 years the annual precipitation and precipitation days increased at the climatic tendency of 9.5 mm/10 a and 3.3 d/10 a, however the precipitation in the cold season contributed most to the increasing of precipitation and precipitation days . There is more strong relationship between the annual precipitation and rainfall intensity. In fact the rainfall during May to September is higher than eighty percent of the annual total precipitation, the trace rain decreased significantly in warm season, the contribution of light rain to annual precipitation is reduced, the contribution of heavy rain and rainstorm is slightly increased. The annual precipitation and precipitation days in cold season is obviously increased. The abrupt change from less to more precipitation days in cold season is nearby 1975 and that of precipitation is after 2003.