| 气象要素极值统计的稳定性、多母体现象和区域极值 |
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| 引用本文： | 董双林.气象要素极值统计的稳定性、多母体现象和区域极值[J].气象学报,1993,51(1):34-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董双林 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京应用气象研究所 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以Gumbel分布为例说明极大似然法估计参数可明显减小抽样误差的影响;说明极值样本中个别极大点数据是引起统计结果不稳定的根本原因;指出它们来自另外的统计母体,即存在多母体现象。对包含极大点数据的稀遇极值用区域极值进行统计,显著提高了结果的稳定性。为方便设计应用,还导出了区域极值的单站发生概率。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象要素 极值 稳定性 |
| 收稿时间： | 1989/9/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 7/2/1991 12:00:00 AM |
ON STABILITY,MULTI-PARENT PHENOMENON AND REGIONAL EXTREMA IN EXTREMAL STATISTICS OF METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS |
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| Dong Shuanglin.ON STABILITY,MULTI-PARENT PHENOMENON AND REGIONAL EXTREMA IN EXTREMAL STATISTICS OF METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1993,51(1):34-43. |
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| Authors: | Dong Shuanglin |
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| Affiliation: | Beijing Institute Of Applied Meteorology, 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Taking Gumbel distribution as an example, it is demonstrated in this paper that the influence of sampling errors on the estimation of distributional pa ameters can be minimized if using the method of maximum likelihood, and the instability of extremal statistics is mainly caused by the isolated maximum in the series of extremal samples.The further research shows that the isolated maximum come from other statistical parent, being the multi-parent phenomenon in the extremal samples. The statistical stability can be maximized if the scarce extrema including these isolated maxima are counted statistically as the regional extrema. In order to meet the needs of engineering design, the probabilities of regional extrema occurred in every stations are calculated. |
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| Keywords: | Meteorological element Extremum Stability |
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