基于 SNA 的 PPP 项目合同履约风险及扩散路径研究

为了缓解 PPP 项目合同履约困难的现象，从社会网络视角分析履约风险特征及关系。根据案例分析、专家打分等识别、量化风险，建立履约风险网络模型并通过社会网络分析的四类指标（整体网络结构特征、个体中心度、影响力及凝聚子群）来识别关键风险及潜在风险扩散路径。研究表明存在具有风险扩散路径的履约风险网络，其中，关键风险包括成本超支风险、工期逾期风险等；存在风险扩散路径，如工期逾期风险—政府干预风险—工程质量风险等；风险传播节点有运营费用过高风险等，从而为 PPP 项目合同的履约风险分析提供了新框架，有助于 PPP 项目履约过程中的风险管控。

Research on the Contract Performance Risks and Risk DiffusionPath of PPP Projects Based on SNA

To alleviate the challenge of poor contract performance in PPP projects，the characteristics and relationship of contractperformance risks are analyzed by social network analysis method. According to case analysis and expert evaluation, the risks areidentified and quantified, and the contract performance risk network model is established. The key risks and potential risk diffusionpaths are identified through four indicators of social network analysis, including overall characteristics of network structure , egocentrality, influence and cohesion subgroup. The research shows that there is a contract performance risk network with risk diffusionpath, among which the key risks include cost overruns and overdue construction period risks. There are risk diffusion paths, such as"overdue risk-government intervention risk-project quality risk"; Risk propagation node has the risk of excessively high operatingexpenses, which provides a new framework for performance risk analysis of PPP project contracts, and contributes to riskmanagement and control in the performance process of PPP projects.