上海市大型公共建筑能耗的贝叶斯统计分析

在建筑能耗的计量过程中,积累了大量的实时能耗数据.这些数据的特点是数量大、噪声大,存在缺失和测量误差等.如何分析和应用如此海量数据,是一个极具挑战性的问题.以2015年上海市大型建筑的电耗数据为研究对象,通过建立多层贝叶斯模型,对各类型大型建筑的月平均单耗、年平均单耗进行估计.该结果将可以帮助政府监管部门对建筑节能工作进行有效评价.

Bayesian statistical analysis on energy for consumption of large-scale public buildings in shanghai

In the process of measuring the power consumed in buildings,massive quantity of real-time energy consumption data have been accumulated.Salient features of these data include large samples,noise accumulations and the presence of measurement errors,etc.Thus,how to analyze and apply these massive data becomes a very challengeable problem.In this paper,based on the dataset which include the consumption of large-scale public buildings in Shanghai for 2015,we establish a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the average monthly consumption and the average annual consumption of large public-scale buildings in 2015.The results will help government regulators to conduct effective evaluation on energy saving for buildings.