京津冀电力结构调整大气污染物及CO2减排效应研究

基于2014年京津冀地区电力统计数据,引入多情景分析方法设定了不同的燃煤发电、燃气发电和可再生能源装机比例情景,测算了相应情景下的SO_2、NO_x和CO_2排放量,分析了该地区电力行业装机比例与大气污染物和温室气体减排潜力的关系。结果表明,在发电总装机容量一定的情况下,对燃煤发电和燃气发电来说,随其装机比例增加,SO_2、NO_x和CO_2排放量呈现逐渐增加的趋势。但相对于燃煤发电机组,燃气发电机组在一定程度上减少了SO_2、NO_x和CO_2的排放量,减排效果显著。对可再生能源发电来说,随其装机比例增加,SO_2、NO_x和CO_2的排放量呈现逐渐下降的趋势。

Multiple scenarios the CO2 emission reduction effect as a result of the power industry regulation and the atmospheric pollutant emission in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

This paper intends to make a quantitative analysis of the relation between the installed power generating capacity and the atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions based on the statistical data of the electric power production of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2014. At the same time,a scenario analysis has been given to set up different scenarios of the coal-burning power generation, the gas-burning power generation as well as the renewable energy power generation with a purpose to work out their corresponding respective emission rates of SO2,NOx and CO2. The results of our comparison prove that,with the total installed capacity being certain,the SO2,NOx and CO2 emissions tend to increase with the increase of the installed capacity ratio of the coalburning power generation and gas-burning power generation, whereas they tend to decrease with the increase of the installed capacity ratio of the renewable energy power generation. What is more,when compared with the coal-burning power generation plants,the gas-burning power generation ones tend to reduce such emissions to some extent,hence bringing remarkable effect of emissions reduction. To be specific,for the coal-burning power generation plants,when the installed capacity ratio tends to increase to 76. 00％,the SO2,NOx and CO2 emissions would increase by 5. 77 × 103 t,4. 49 × 103 t,9. 62 × 106 t,respectively, but when the installed capacity ratio of the coal-burning power generation falls to 68. 00％,the corresponding emissions of SO2, NOx and CO2 would decrease by 8. 61 × 103 t,6. 70 × 103 t,14. 35 × 106 t,accordingly. And,in comparison,if the installed capacity ratio of the gas-burning power generation is 6. 00％,12. 00％ and 18. 00％,the corresponding emissions would respectively be reduced to 647. 27 t,1 294. 54 t,1 941. 81 t for SO2; 719. 19 t,1 438. 38 t,2 157. 57 t for NOx,and 5 034. 33× 103 t,10 068. 66 × 103 t,15 102. 99 × 103 t for CO2,thus bringing about a great deal of benefits of pollutant emission reduction. To be specific,for the coal-burning power generation,when its installed power-generation capacity ratio has increased to 76. 00％,it would be possible for the SO2,NOx and CO2 emission total to increase by 5. 77 × 103 t,4. 49 × 103 t,9. 62 × 106 t. But,in comparison,it would be reduced to 68. 00％,and the corresponding emissions would decrease by 8. 61 × 103 t,6. 70 ×103 t,14. 35 × 106 t,in case when the gas-burning power generation is adopted. And,in case when its installed power generation ratio is 6. 00％,12. 00％ and 18. 00％,the corresponding emission total would be respectively gone up to 647. 27 t,1 294. 54 t,1 941. 81 t for SO2,719. 19 t,1 438. 38 t,2 157. 57 t for NOx, and 5 034. 33 × 103 t,10 068. 66 × 103 t,15 102. 99 × 103 t for CO2. Besides,when the installed ratio of the gas-burning power generation were to increase from 8. 00％ to 18. 00％,the emissions of SO2,NOx and CO2 can only increase by 1 078. 79 t,1 198. 65 t,8 390. 55 × 103 t. Therefore,for the renewable energy power generation,when its installed power-generating ratio has increased to 23. 00％,it would be possible for the SO2,NOx and CO2 emission total to be expected to decrease by 18. 80 × 103 t,14. 43 × 103 t,27. 71 × 106 t,accordingly,which helps to decrease their emission to 16. 00％,with the corresponding emissions being only increased by 5. 61 × 103 t,4. 34 × 103 t,8. 37 ×106 t.