我国农村剩余劳动力转移问题研究——我国农村剩余劳动力的数量估算与转移规模预测

文章通过改进计算农村剩余劳动力数量的劳均耕地法,对我国农村剩余劳动力数量进行了估算。进而运用城乡人口比重预测法对我国未来20年农村劳动力转移规模进行预测,结果表明在未来20年内我国大概需要向城市转移3至4亿的农村劳动力,每年要转移1 800万左右。但目前我国所提供的就业岗位远不能满足农村劳动力在城市中就业的需求,因此,创造更多的就业机会就成为农村劳动力转移的根本前提。

Study on the Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor in China——The Quantity Estimate of Rural Surplus Labor and the Forecast of Its Transfer Scale

By improving the method of necessary burden labors per hectare of cultivated land to estimate the quantity of rural surplus labor,this paper makes an estimate of the quantity of rural surplus labor,and then forecasts the transfer scale of rural surplus labor by using the proportion method of urban population and agriculture population.The result shows that there are 300 million to 400 million rural labor will migrate from rural areas to urban areas in the coming 20 years,and the average transfer labor is 15 million to 20 million in China.However,the increasing employment can not meet the demand of rural surplus labor,so the important thing for China to transfer the rural surplus labor is to create more jobs.