“中等收入陷阱”与中国发展道路——基于国际经验教训的视角

2010年中国人均GDP超过4 000美元,标志着正式进入上中等收入行列。文章对掉进中等收入陷阱的拉美等国家进行比较,以跨越这个陷阱并早已进入高收入行列的东亚四小龙为参照系,指出中国经济发展已经历和即将经历市场驱动、要素驱动、效率驱动和创新驱动4个阶段,以及3次跨越;目前刚进入效率驱动即上中等收入阶段;文章分析了中国在这个阶段容易掉进中等收入陷阱的各种诱因,提出避免掉进陷阱和经济转型的动力问题,认为制度、政策和基础设施构成了动力组合。

Middle Income Trap and China's Path to Development:In Perspective of International Experiences and Lessons

In 2010 Chinese GDP per capita surpassed USD 4 000,which signals that China has entered the upper middle income rank.This essay compares those Latin American countries which have fallen into the middle income trap with the East Asian tigers which have successfully avoided this trap and entered the high income rank.China has already passed the market-driven stage and the factor-driven stage and just reached the efficiency-driven stage,and the next stage will be innovation-driven one.At the current efficiency...