辽西大凌河流域土地利用变化及驱动力分析

从政策、流域综合治理、经济发展和技术进步、农民认知态度等4方面对影响大凌河流域土地利用变化的驱动力进行了分析。同时运用农户问卷调查和驱动力分析结果,选取影响耕地变化的社会经济和人口因子,运用主成分分析和多元迭代回归分析确定影响耕地变化的主要因子,并拟合出耕地变化的最优度模型。研究结果表明:在1987—2002年期间,农田和未利用荒地面积在不断减小,而林地、果园、草地在不断增加,但1995年后变化边际度大大减小;主成分分析表明影响土地利用变化主要影响因子是农业人口(A-POP)、总人口(T-POP)、农村经济收入(TIRE)、农林牧渔收入(IAFAF)和第三产业总产值(GTI);多元迭代回归分析表明耕地面积变化的最优回归模型中主变量是农业人口(A-POP)、总人口(T-POP)、农村经济收入(TIRE),这些变量能够解释95.1%的耕地变化。

Driving forces analysis of land utilization in Dalinghe river watershed of western Liaoning province during 1987-2002

This study analyzes the process of the impact of different policies on agricultural landscape changes and human-induced arable land changes in the Dalinghe river watershed from 1987 to 2002.It deploys categorical stepwise regression analysis method and principal component analysis to study arable land changes from the perspective of the interactions between policy changes and socioeconomic factors.The results were that the arable land change was mainly contributed to the changes of three factors agricultural population(A-POP),total population(T-POP),total income of rural economy(TIRE)while together these parameters explained 95.1% of the arable land change.Moreover the regression analysis confirms that rapid rural economic growth has a direct impact on the arable land change.At the same time,the study showed that the changes of agricultural landscape pattern are mainly the result of the continuous implementation of Household Responsibility System and the Family Planning policy,and the adoption of a market-directed economic system,as well as the execution of an integrated soil erosion control project and the conversion slope farmland into forest or pasture by farmer questionaries.The changes of the agricultural landscape showed the large benefits in both ecological and economic respects.