水库滑坡变形特征和预测预报的数值研究

水库滑坡不同于一般山体滑坡，其稳定性受水位波动的影响十分明显。由于水库滑坡的特殊性和重要性，其变形特征和预测预报的研究已成为目前研究的热点和难点。库水水位的波动，改变了水库滑坡的水力边界条件，引起坡体内渗流场的非稳定渗流，采用传统的分析方法很难对其变形破坏特征和稳定性的动态变化进行研究，并对其失稳破坏进行预测预报。因此，基于数值极限分析方法对水位下降过程中滑坡体的变形特征和稳定性的动态变化规律进行了研究；通过位移-时间关系曲线以及位移-时间对数关系曲线对滑坡体的变形破坏特征进行了定量研究，并提出利用水平位移陡升段（加速段）和水平方向的夹角作为滑坡临滑预报的判据，为认清水库滑坡的破坏机制和提升其预报水平提供了新的思路。

Numerical researches on deformation characteristics and prediction of reservoir landslides

Reservoir landslide is different from other mountain landslides, and its stability is obviously influenced by the fluctuation of water level. Due to its particularity and importance, the researches on the deformation characteristics and prediction of reservoir landslides have become the focus and difficult points. The fluctuation of reservoir water level will change the hydraulic boundary conditions and lead to unstable flows in the seepage field of the slope. The traditional analysis method cannot study the failure characteristics of deformation, the dynamic variation of stability and the prediction of unstable failure. So based on the numerical limit analysis, the deformation characteristics of landslides during the descending of water level and the dynamic variation law of stability are studied. The deformation characteristics of landslides are quantitatively studied through displacement-time relationship curve and its logarithmic relationship curve. The angle between the section of steep rise (acceleration section) of horizontal displacement and horizon is put forward to be the criterion for sliding prediction. It provides a new idea for understanding the failure mechanism of reservoir landslides and the improvement of prediction.