印度尼西亚巨震对华东地震形势的影响

根据印度板块和缅甸次板块运动GPS观测资料, 分析了印度尼西亚巨震的发震构造背景, 震后印、 缅板块的正应力减小, 剪应力相对增大, 剪应力是对华东地震形势产生影响的主要动力源。 简单统计印缅板块地震后3年内华东地区发生中强震的对应组数为21组, 利用概率增益公式得出印、 缅板块地震和华东地区中强震的对应关系是有物理基础的对应, 而不是随机的对应。 通过β分布函数预测华东地区未来3年发生5级以上地震的概率为0.67, 风险经验概率为0.65。

Influence of large earthquakes in Indonesia on earthquake tendency in East China

Based on GPS data that Indian tectonic plate and Burma tectonic plate are moving, the earthquake structure background of large earthquakes in Indonesia is analyzed. The normal stress decreased and share stress increased in Indian and Burma tectonic Plates after large earthquakes, share stress is the main dynamic source influence on earthquake tendency in east China. Simple statistics show that there are 21 sets of corresponding moderately strong earthquakes occurred in East China in 3 years after India and Burma tectonic plate earthquakes. By using the formula of probability gain, we can know that this correspondence earthquake relation between East China and Indian and Burma tectonic plates is a correspondent with physical function, not random correspondent relation. Through β distribution function, we can predict that the probability of earthquakes with M_S≥5.0 is 0.67 in future 3 years in East China. The risk probability is 0.65.