计及发展不确定性的配电网柔性规划方法

伴随着中国城市化的快速发展，配电网规划中的不确定性因素越来越多，为此提出了一套配电网柔性规划的思路、模型和方法，涉及变电站、通道、中压网架组网形态及其过渡。其中，通道规划进行主干通道预留以便于新增负荷和变电站的就近接入；提出了基于多场景概率的站址预留优选方法，以及基于盈亏平衡分析的站址预留优化决策；阐述了环状型组网形态在柔性规划中的优势，提出了网状型和环状型组网形态的优选模型及其启发式求解方法；提出了优先针对中压配电网主干线布线的柔性规划思路；基于推导的变电站最远供电距离估算表，提出了通过调整站间供电范围实现网架的柔性过渡。算例分析验证了所提柔性规划方法的有效性和实用性。

Flexible Planning Methods for Distribution Network with Uncertainties During Development

With the rapid development of urbanization in China, there are more and more uncertain factors in distribution network planning. Therefore, a new set of ideas, models and methods of flexible planning for distribution networks is proposed, which is related with substations, channels, networking forms and their transition of medium voltage network structures. Firstly, it is pointed out that all main channels should be reserved for the convenient access of new nearby loads and substations. Secondly, for the determination of substation site reservation schemes, the corresponding optimization method is put forward based on multi-scenario probabilities, and a decision-making method is proposed based on the break-even analysis. Then, the advantages of a ring type networking form are elaborated for flexible planning, and the optimization model and corresponding heuristic solution method are proposed to make a choice between a mesh-type structure and a ring-type structure. It is also proposed that a planning priority is given to the main trunk lines of a medium voltage distribution network. Finally, based on the estimated table of farthest power supply distances, some flexible transition schemes of networking forms are proposed by adjusting the power supply ranges. The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed flexible planning methods are verified through numerical examples.