含风电场的电力系统随机生产模拟

针对风电机组出力的间歇性和波动性，提出了用于电力系统随机模拟的时序多状态风电场模型。该模型把研究周期分成不同的阶段，在每个阶段内，风电场的输出功率状态以及各状态的概率都与时间间隔有关系，时间间隔越小，记录的风速数据越多，这样更详细地反映风电场输出功率的波动性；而且在不同的阶段，风速的情况有所差异，因此各阶段风电场输出功率的状态数、各状态值及各状态值对应的概率都可能不相同。该模型反映了风电场输出功率的时序性。基于等效电量函数法的含风电场的电力系统随机模拟计算表明，该模型比较客观地反映风电场输出功率的实际情况

Power system probabilistic production simulation including wind farms

According to the stochastic and intermittent natures of wind turbines, a time sequential multi-state generator model corresponding to wind farm is presented in power system probabilistic production simulation. In the model, the research period is divided into different stages, and in each stage the wind output power state and its probability are related to time interval. The smaller the time interval is, the more wind data are recorded, so that the model reflects the fluctuation of the wind power effectively. In different stages, due to the difference of wind speed, the wind output power state numbers, state values and the corresponding probability of wind output power states are different, so that the model reflects sequential characteristic of the wind power effectively. Power system probabilistic production simulation, based on equivalent energy function method, shows that the proposed model can simulate wind power practically.