岩盐水溶开采沉陷新概率积分三维预测模型研究

开采沉陷的准确预测是减小和杜绝开采沉陷灾难发生的前提，传统概率积分法难以应用于岩盐水溶开采复杂条件下的地表沉陷预测。因此，充分考虑上覆岩层在复杂地质条件下可能表现出来的各向异性、岩盐溶腔的不规则性，建立了新概率积分三维预测模型；并从力学角度，对三维预测模型的参数进行了研究，获得了模型参数与上覆岩层力学参数之间的关系。该模型能够对复杂地质条件和不规则采空区引起的地表沉陷进行较为准确地预测。

Study on a new probability integral 3D model for forecasting solution mining subsidence of rock salt

Forecasting the mining subsidence is a prerequisite for reducing or preventing the mining subsidence tragedy. But it is hard to apply the traditional probability integral to forecasting the complex solution mining subsidence. So sufficiently considering the anisotropic overburden under complex geological conditions and the irregular rock salt cavern, a new probability integral 3D forecast model is created. And the parameters of 3D forecast model are studied from mechanics angle; and the relation between the model parameters and overburden mechanical parameters is got. The model can exactly forecast the mining subsidence that is caused by complex geological conditions and the irregular working out area.