基于前景理论的地铁/公交出行路径选择模型

以"前景理论"为框架,通过对地铁/公交组合交通出行方式的选择行为特性分析,以地铁在常态运营下的行驶时间为单位广义费用,通过意向调查(SP调查)拟合路径选择影响因素的换算函数,建立了广义出行费用计算模型;然后针对前景理论中关键的参考点选择方法,提出用预留时间作为对期望费用的修正,并对参数进行标定,建立了在风险条件下的地铁/公交出行路径决策模型.实例验证结果表明:模型与被调查者的选择吻合率约90%.

Subway and Public Transit Path Choice Model Based on Prospect Theory

In the framework of prospect theory,this paper studied the path choice behavior of passengers who travel with the subway and public transit. Firstly,passenger travel time under normal operation condition was defined as generalized cost unit(GCU),and SP investigation was used to quantify the affects factors of path choice to build the generalized cost calculation function. Then,expected travel cost,which was calibrated by using reservation travel time,was used to select reference points. At last, the path choice model was validated by a case study and it showed that the calculation result was 90% fit with the choice of respondents which meant that the path choice model could be used in real application.