灰色关联分析和多元二次非线性回归分析模型研究及应用

基于大庆油田采油二厂压裂措施资料,运用灰色关联分析方法选取对裂缝导流能力影响较大的因素,然后运用多元二次回归分析做进一步的定量研究,并与DPS系统的分析结果进行对比。结果表明,灰色关联分析可以较好的得到与裂缝导流能力关系密切的因素,回归分析可以得出因素间的具体定量关系,且回归分析计算的精度较高,多元二次回归分析和DPS平均拟合误差分别为0.940%、0.916%,预测平均误差分别为1.850%、1.831%,研究为油田开发动态数据规律研究提供了有效的方法。

The Model Research and Software Development of Gray Correlation Degree and Multiple Quadratic Regression Analysis

Based on the fracturing data of the Second oil production plant of Daqing oilfield,applying the method of grey correlative analysis,the main factors of fracture flow capacity are selected,and then multiple quadratic regression analysis was applied to know the further quantitative relation among the factors,which was compared with the result of the DPS.The consequent of the research shows that the main factors of fracture flow capacity can be gained by grey correlative analysis,while the quantitative relation could be obtained by the multiple quadratic regression analysis;in addition,the calculation accuracy of multiple quadratic regression analysis is extremely high.The average fitted deviation of the software prepared by the paper and the DPS respectively are 0.940%、0.916%,while the forecast deviation respectively are 1.850%、1.831%.The research is proved to be an effective method of processing the oilfield development performance.