| 系统云灰色宏观调控预测模型及其应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈德军,张玉民,陈绵云.系统云灰色宏观调控预测模型及其应用研究[J].控制与决策,2005,20(5):553-556. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈德军 张玉民 陈绵云 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉理工大学,信息工程学院,湖北,武汉,430070
2. 华中科技大学,控制科学与工程系,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(79970025)，国防科研预研基金项目(00J15.3.3JW0528). |
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| 摘 要： | 根据系统云灰色预测模型,针对具有"贫"信息、小样本序列数据的社会经济系统,分析了外部环境变化或外部政策调控对系统预测的影响机理.在系统动态结构相对稳定的条件下,结合系统动力学和系统云灰色模型,提出了一种系统云灰色宏观调控预测模型,并对该模型的求解方法进行了研究.最后,以国民经济增长速度的宏观调控预测为例,阐述了上述调控预测模型的使用方法、合理性和准确性.
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| 关 键 词： | 系统云 灰色预测 趋势关联 宏观调控模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-0920(2005)05-0553-04 |
On system cloud macro adjusting forecasting model and its application |
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| CHEN De-jun,ZHANG Yu-min,CHEN Mian-yun.On system cloud macro adjusting forecasting model and its application[J].Control and Decision,2005,20(5):553-556. |
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| Authors: | CHEN De-jun ZHANG Yu-min CHEN Mian-yun |
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| Affiliation: | CHEN De-jun~1,ZHANG Yu-min~2,CHEN Mian-yun~2 |
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| Abstract: | Based on system cloud gray forecasting model, and aimed at the society economy system with "poor" (information) and small sample series, the influencing mechanism of system forecasting is analyzed when external environment changed or macro policies adjusted. When dynamic structure of system is stabile relatively, a macro adjusting and forecasting model of system cloud gray is proposed, and its solution is investigated. The macro adjusting and forecasting of national economy increasing in productivity is discussed, the application and rationality and veracity of macro adjusting and forecasting model are illustrated. |
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| Keywords: | system cloud gray forecasting trend relation macro adjusting model |
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