云南低纬地区气候生产潜力变化及其与水稻产量的关系——以临沧市临翔区为例

 以临沧市临翔区1961~2010年平均气温和降水量资料，采用Miami模型和Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了气温生产力（Yt）、降水生产力（Yp）和气候生产潜力（Tspv），并分析了气温、降水量和气候生产潜力变化特征、影响气候生产潜力的主要因素以及气候生产潜力与水稻产量的关系。结果表明：近50年临翔区年平均气温呈上升趋势，年降水量则呈缓慢下降的趋势，二者变化率分别为0.260℃/10a（P＜0.01）和-15.98mm/10a（P＞0.05），从20世纪80年代开始变化加剧。干季增温较雨季快，而降水量减少较雨季慢。Tspv呈不明显上升趋势，气温升高和降水增加均能提高Tspv，而降水量是限制作物Tspv的主要气候因子。水稻实际产量占同期Tspv的比例较低，而从2004年开始比例有所增加。建议解决好农业生产用水问题，提高水资源利用率，采用新的高产品种，提高耕作技术水平等，以提高作物气候生产潜力应用水平。

Changes of Climate Potential Productivity and the Relationship with Rice Yield in Low latitude Area of Yunnan: A Case Study in Linxiang District, Lincang City

Using annual average temperature and annual precipitation of Linxiang District, Lincang City from 1961 to 2010, temperature productivity (Yt), precipitation productivity (Yp) and climate potential productivity (Tspv) were calculated by Miami Model and Thornthwaite Memorial Model. Then the changes of temperature, precipitation and Tspv, main factors that affected Tspv and the relationship between Tspv and rice yield were analyzed. The results showed that annual average temperature of Linxiang District had an increasing trend in the last 50 years, while precipitation had a decreasing trend. Both temperature and precipitation changed significantly started from 80s, 20th century, and the changing rates were 0.260℃ per 10 years (P＜0.01) and -15.98 mm per 10 years (P＞0.05), respectively Temperature increasing in dry season was faster than in rainy season, which reversed to precipitation decreasing. Tspvhad an inconspicuous increasing trend and both increased temperature and precipitation should enhance Tspv. However, precipitation was the main climatic factor that limited crop Tspv in Linxiang District. The percentage of actual rice yield to homochronous Tspv was low, but it was increased since 2004. The results suggested that, eg., solving agricultural production water problems, improving utilization efficiency of water resource, adopting new high yield varieties and improving farming technology level were good ways for increasing the application level of crop climate potential productivity.