超标洪水下堤防失事风险评价及工程应用

基于堤防工程可能的失效模式,修正了水文失事风险率和边坡滑动失稳风险率计算模型.分析了漫顶失事、渗透破坏失事以及边坡滑动失稳的条件概率计算方法,建立了堤防综合失事风险率计算模型;同时,提出了超标洪水下堤防失事风险率的计算方法,结合南京市外秦淮河堤防工程实例,得到超标洪水下外秦淮河堤防综合失事风险率为0.57%.

Integrated risk assessment of levees under over-level flood condition and a case study

Considering the potential failure modes in levee engineering,the mathematical models of hydrological failure risk and slope slide instability risk for levees are improved.Computing methods of conditional probability functions for overflowing failure risk,seepage failure risk and slope slide instability risk are described.A mathematical model of integrated failure risk for levees is set up.Meanwhile the calculation method of failure risk under over-level flood conditions is presented.According to these proposed models and methods,the risk analysis of External Qinhuai River levees of Nanjing under over-level flood conditions is carried out,and the failure risk factor of the levee under over-level flood conditions is found to be 0.57%.