多自然灾害下的架空输电线路运行风险评估

为了对多种自然灾害共同作用下的架空输电线路运行风险进行评估,基于现代安全风险量化理论,充分考虑各类自然灾害风险的发生可能性、对架空输电线路的影响程度以及危害的严重程度,采用风险概率、线路故障输送能力损失值、风险社会影响系数三者综合量化架空线路灾害运行风险。基于此建立了多种自然灾害下架空输电线路运行风险评估体系,并采用改进层次分析法计算不同自然灾害的风险权重,保证评估结果的合理性。利用该方法完成了一例地区电网架空输电线路在多种自然灾害共同作用下的运行风险评估,验证了方法的可行性。该评估方法通用性更强,评估结果可为采取针对性灾害抵御措施、提高线路风险防范能力提供依据。

Risk assessment of overhead transmission lines under multiple natural disasters

We evaluate the operation risk of overhead transmission lines under the combined action of multiple natural disasters. The analysis is based on modern security risk quantification theory, fully considering the possibility of various natural disaster risks, the degree of impact on overhead transmission lines, the severity of the hazards, the risk probability, line failure transmission capacity loss value, and risk social impact coefficient. These are used to comprehensively quantify the disaster operation risk of overhead lines. It establishes a risk assessment system for the operation of overhead transmission lines under various natural disasters, and uses the improved analytic hierarchy process to calculate the risk weights of different natural disasters, to ensure the rationality of assessment results. This method is used to complete an operational risk assessment of a regional power grid overhead transmission line under multiple natural disasters. This verifies the feasibility of the method. The evaluation method proposed is versatile, and the results can provide a basis for taking targeted disaster prevention measures and improve the risk prevention capabilities of lines. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51507119) and the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Henan Electric Power Company (No. 5217H020000K).