基于分层马尔可夫的可修复稳定控制系统可靠性分析

目前稳定控制系统（简称稳控系统）的可靠性建模分析尚属空白。为健全和完善稳控系统的设计、架构和运维，建立稳控系统的可靠性分析模型十分必要。通过功能结构分析，稳控系统具备多串联系统冗余配置和多系统表决的结构特点。稳控系统结构复杂、装置数目多，因此马尔可夫建模方法状态空间数量较大，无法直接建模计算求解。结合稳控系统结构特点，通过分层马尔可夫的概率映射方法，大大降低了状态空间数量和计算量，实现了稳控系统可靠性的分析计算。根据稳控系统的可靠性建模计算方法，对某典型稳控系统建立了详细的状态模型，该模型考虑了稳控系统装置的自检、检修、隐形故障和冗余配置等因素。根据稳控系统的可靠性分析，设备检修安排不合理可能降低系统可靠性，突破了检修提高系统可靠性的认知。

Reliability Analysis of Repairable Stability Control System Based on Hierarchical Markov

The reliability modeling analysis of the stability control system is still vacant. It is therefore of great significance to establish a reliability analysis model of the stability control system so as to perfect and improve the stability control system's design, architecture and operation. As an analysis of the function structure shows, the stability control system are structurally characterized with the redundant configuration of multi-series system and multi-system voting. The stability control system is complex in structure and large in the number of devices, so the Markov modeling is large in state-space number, which makes it impossible to realize the direct modeling solution. Based on the structural characteristics of the stability control system, the hierarchical Markov probability mapping method is proposed to reduce the number of state-space and the amount of computation, which makes it possible to realize the reliability analysis and calculation of the stability control system. The reliability modeling method is used to establish a detailed state model for a typical stability control system, which considers the factors of self-checking, overhauling, hidden faults and redundant configuration of the stability control system. The reliability analysis shows that unreasonable arrangement of equipment overhauling may reduce system reliability, which breaks the common knowledge that overhauling can improve the system reliability.