大柳树灌区宁夏分区水资源承载力综合评价

通过构建模糊综合评判模型及包含水资源、社会经济、生态环境3个子系统11个因素的水资源承载力综合评判指标体系,对大柳树灌区宁夏分区水资源承载力状况进行了综合评价。结果表明:两个水平年(2020年、2030年)水资源承载能力虽有一定的规模,仍有一定开发利用潜力,水资源对区内国民经济发展有一定的保证,但综合评分值由现状年的0.597降至2020年、2030年的0.528及0.478,承载力逐步下降,有轻微转向恶化的可能。通过采用节水技术并调整产业结构等措施,水资源供需矛盾将得到一定的缓解。

Comprehensive assessment on water resources carrying capacity of Ningxia of Daliushu irrigation area

Through establishing a fuzzy comprehensive assessment model and a comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity that contains three subsystems， i.e. water resources， social economy and eco-environment， and 11 factors， the water resources carrying capacity of Ningxia of Daliushu irngation area is comprehensively assessed herein. The result shows that though the water resources capacities of two planning-level years（2010， 2030）can be maintained in a certain scale with definite development and utilization potentialities and the water resources has a certain guarantee for the national economic development in the region， the scores of comprehensive assessment are gradually decreased from 0.597 of the actuality year to 0.528and 0.478 in the years of 2020 and 2030 with the possibility of turning to slight deterioration. Through the countermeasures of adopting water-saving technology and adjusting industrial structure therein， the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is to be alleviated to a certain extent.