社会经济-水安全SD预警模型的构建

水安全问题关系到社会经济的可持续稳定发展。从社会经济系统、水资源与水环境系统以及二者的相互联系的定量研究入手,建立系统动力学(SD)预警模型,并通过其变量分析该系统内部的耦合关系,利用计算机,提供信号预警,为检验现行社会经济发展目标、策略以及中长期社会经济发展计划提供定量分析手段。模型仿真结果表明,所建的SD预警模型可在实践中应用或检验。

SD Model for Water Security Alarm

Water security is so important as to the survival of human beings and sustainable development of any country and region that various strategies have been explored for the sustainable development and management of water resources and its environment. Alarm of the security status of the water system based on SD model is believed useful for reasonable decision making towards water resources and its environment under various development scenarios. The present paper discusses the definition of water security, the significance of water security to sustainable development and the importance of alarm of water security, as well as the ways of the construction of SD model for alarm of water security on the basis of quantification of the relationship between social economic system and water resource and water environment system, and the internal relationship among variables within each system. The mathematical SD model thus constructed delineates clearly the coupling correlation between the social economic system and the water resource and water environment system. Computer simulation of input data with Stella system gave reliable signal warning of the water security status quo of Hainan Province in between 1998 and 2003 in the application study. The established SD model is therefore believed useful in quantification analysis in the preparation of medium and long-term social economic development plan for better water security under various development scenarios.