基于Kriging插值的1961~2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析

利用淮河流域4省170个气象站点1961~2005年的降水观测数据，采用Kriging法对淮河流域各季及年降水量进行了插值，得到了1 km×1 km降水栅格序列。在此基础上，对淮河流域降水的时空格局及其变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：淮河流域降水量的空间分布基本呈南高北低、山区多于平原、近海多于内陆的格局。近45 a来淮河流域降水量的年际波动较为强烈，而变化趋势不显著。流域内汛期和年降水量的年代际变化则具有明显的阶段性，主要表现在20世纪90年代前基本为下降趋势，2000年后明显上升。当前，淮河流域正处于降水的高气候变率时期。45 a来，降水的空间格局发生了一定的变化，表现在淮河中上游和干流沿岸地区的降水量升高，而流域东北部的降水则呈下降趋势

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION IN HUAI RIVER BASIN DURING 1961~2005

Surfaces of precipitation at resolution of 1 km×1 km were generated by the series data from 170 observation stations in Huai River basin from 1961 to 2005,using Kriging interpolation method.Based on the grid data series,the spatial and temporal variability characteristics of precipitation in Huai River basin were analyzed.Results showed that the higher precipitation occurred in the south of the basin,and lower precipitation occurred in the north of the basin,and lower precipitation occurred in the north of the basin.There was no significant trend with large inter annual variabilities of annual precipitation in recent 45 years,and the rainfall of various season had different change patterns.The linear trend analyses and Mann Kendall trend test indicated that the changing trends of precipitation did not arrive at the significant level in Huai River basin.Nevertheless,the inter decadal variabilities of annual and flood season precipitation had obvious phase characteristics.The precipitation present decline trend before 1990s,while an apparent increasing trend after 2000.At present,the precipitation of Huai River basin is in a phase of high climate variability.During recent 45 years,there was an evident variation in the spatial distribution of precipitation in Huai River basin,which was represented by an increase trend of precipitation in the upper and middle Huai River, and a decline trend in the northeast of basin