基于干预分析模型的COVID-19疫情对手足口病的影响

  目的  利用苏州市某区近年来儿童手足口病(hand, foot and mouth disease, HFMD)发病数据建立预测模型，判断HFMD发病变化趋势，以及推测COVID-19疫情防控对HFMD的影响。  方法  根据2009年1月―2019年12月的儿童HFMD监测数据库，利用季节性自回归移动平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average，SARIMA)模型建立HFMD数据预测模型，预测2020年1―10月的发病数，将实际值与预测值进行比较，确定HFMD发病的变化。在最佳SARIMA模型中加入干预变量，确定COVID-19疫情对儿童HFMD发病的影响。  结果  与2019年同期儿童HFMD发病情况相比，2020年1―10月发病数均有下降。2020年1―10月儿童HFMD的发病实际趋势与预测趋势差别较大，发病实际值均低于预测值，2020年2―9月的偏离度均超过100%。在SARIMA模型中加入干预变量后分析显示，干预变量的系数为-135.4(P=0.010)，说明儿童HFMD的发病例数平均每月减少135例。  结论  苏州市某区在2020年1―10月的儿童HFMD发病数低于历史同期，推断COVID-19疫情发生以来，应急响应期间严格防控措施和常态化防控措施在有效控制COVID-19疫情的同时，也抑制了儿童HFMD的发生。

Study on the influence of COVID-19 epidemic to hand,foot and mouth disease based on intervention analysis model

  Objective  To establish a prediction model based on the incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in a district of Suzhou in recent years, to judge the trend of HFMD incidence, and to predict the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control on HFMD.  Methods  Based on the HFMD surveillance database from January 2009 to December 2019, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was selected to establish the HFMD data prediction model to predict the number of HFMD cases from January to October 2020. The differentials between the actual values and the predicted values were compared to confirm the change of HFMD incidence. Intervention variables were added in the optimal SARIMA model to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence of HFMD in children.  Results  Compared with the incidence of HFMD in the same period of 2019, the incidence of HFMD in children decreased from January to October in 2020. The actual and predicted incidence trends of HFMD in children from January to October in 2020 were significantly different, and the actual case numbers were all lower than those in the prediction, and the deviation degrees from February to September in 2020 were all more than 100%. After adding intervention variables in the SARIMA model, the coefficient of intervention variables was -135.4 (P=0.010), suggesting that the incidence of HFMD in children decreased by about 135 cases per month on average.  Conclusions  The incidence of HFMD in children in a district of Suzhou from January to October in 2020 was lower than that in the historical period. It is inferred that strict and normalized prevention and control measures have not only effectively controlled the outbreak of COVID-19, but also affected the incidence of HFMD in children.