西北地区人间布鲁氏菌病发病率与自然和社会因素相关性

  目的  描述西北地区布鲁氏菌病(简称布病)的流行特征，探索其发病率与自然和社会因素的相关性。  方法  收集全国2004—2015年布病监测数据、西北5省2004—2015年布病报告数据及自然和社会因素资料，描述布病的时间分布特征，采用主成分回归分析探索各因素对发病率的影响。  结果  2004—2015年间西北5省布病发病率逐年升高，且整体高于全国水平。每年5—8月为发病高峰。牧业总产值、地区生产总值、牛肉牛奶产量与布病发病率呈正相关，牛期末数量与布病发病率呈负相关。  结论  西北地区布病发生率较全国同期水平高，地区生产总值、牧业总产值、牛肉牛奶产量等社会因素对发病率有影响，春夏回暖季尽早防控，控制养殖规模，对于控制布病疫情具有重要意义。

Study on the correlation between the incidence of human brucellosis and natural and social factors in Northwest China

  Objective  To describe the epidemiology of Brucellosis in northwest China and to explore the association of incidence with natural and social factors.  Methods  The national surveillance data of brucellosis from 2004 to 2015, the report data of brucellosis from five Provinces in Northwest China from 2004 to 2015 and the data of natural and social factors were collected to describe the temporal distribution characteristics of brucellosis. The principal component regression analysis was used to explore the influence of various factors on the incidence of brucellosis.  Results  From 2004 to 2015, the incidence of brucellosis in northwest five Provinces increased year by year, and was higher than the national level. The incidence peak was from May to August every year. The total value of livestock production, regional GDP and the yield of beef and milk were positively correlated with the incidence of disease, while the number of cattle at the end of the period was negatively correlated with the incidence of disease.  Conclusions  The incidence of brucellosis in Northwest China is higher than that in the same period of the country. Social factors such as regional GDP, the total value of livestock production, beef and milk production have an impact on the incidence of brucellosis. Prevention and control of brucellosis as early as possible in spring and summer warm season and control of breeding scale are of great significance for the control of brucellosis epidemic.