2004—2018年中国主要呼吸道传染病的流行趋势及特征

  目的  分析2004-2018年我国麻疹、肺结核、百日咳、流行性感冒(简称流感)、流行性腮腺炎、风疹以及猩红热的流行趋势及特征, 为明确我国呼吸道传染病防控重点提供科学依据。  方法  整理归纳2004-2018年我国7种呼吸道传染病的发病数据, 采用Joinpoint软件分析发病率的变化趋势。  结果  我国2004-2018年7种呼吸道传染病总报告23 903 628例, 年均发病率117.96/10万, 男性发病率高于女性, 主要发病人群为青少年和儿童, 高发于春冬季。我国主要呼吸道传染病发病率在2004-2016年呈下降趋势年度变化百分比(annual percent change, APC)=-2.00%, P < 0.001], 但是在2016到2018年又有所回升(APC=15.00%, P=0.30)。肺结核和麻疹发病率呈下降趋势, 但流行性感冒、百日咳、猩红热的发病率呈上升趋势。  结论  中国呼吸道传染病自2016年以来发病率有所回升, 如何应对季节性流感的流行及新型流感的暴发、肺结核的高疾病负担及百日咳和猩红热的复燃, 是未来我国防控呼吸道传染病的重点。

Epidemiological trends and characteristics of major respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2018

  Objective  To analyze the epidemic trends and characteristics of measles, tuberculosis, pertussis, influenza, mumps, rubella and scarlet fever in China from 2004 to 2018, so as to provide evidence for defining the prevention and control priorities of respiratory infectious diseases in China.  Methods  The incidence data of 7 respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2018 were summarized, and the trend of incidence rate was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression model.  Results  A total of 23 903 628 cases of 7 respiratory infectious diseases were reported in China from 2004 to 2018, with an average annual incidence of 117.96/100 000. The incidence was higher in males than in females, mainly in teenagers and children, with a higher incidence in spring and winter.In 2004-2016, the overall incidence of major respiratory infectious diseases in China declined significantly. (APC=-2.00%, P < 0.001). However, it increased from 2016 to 2018(APC=15.00%, P=0.30). The incidence of tuberculosis and measles decreased, but the incidence of influenza, whooping cough and scarlet fever increased.  Conclusions  The incidence of respiratory infectious diseases in China has been rising since 2016. How to deal with the epidemic of seasonal influenza and the outbreak of new influenza, the high disease burden of tuberculosis, and the resurgence of whooping cough and scarlet fever will be the focus of prevention and control of respiratory infectious diseases in China in the future.