武汉区域分县可能最大降水预报研究

针对强降水过程预报,介绍了一种包含大尺度降水、不稳定能量释放、地形影响作用等因子的可能最大降水预报模型的建立方案。方案利用历史强降水过程资料和精细的地形资料,从暴雨的基本成因出发,构造了多个影响因子,分别设计了不稳定降水方程和地形影响降水方程。通过2007汛期业务试运行表明,同其它模式相比,该模型对暴雨有较强的预报能力,为防汛抗灾提供了可靠的气象决策依据,最大可能降低了暴雨洪涝灾害造成的损失。

The Forecast of Possible Maximal Precipitation in Every Station in Wuhan Region

Aiming at strong precipitation forecast,a project about the forecasting model of possible maximal precipitation including factors like big-scale rain,unstable energy releasing,terrain effect is introduced.By using the historical strong precipitation examples and elaborate terrain datum,and based on the basic matter of strong precipitation,the unstable precipitation equation and terrain effect precipitation equation are designed.By examination during 2007 flood season,compared with other forecasting models,this model shows better forecast ability for strong precipitation,and provided credible weather decision-making gist,farthest reducing the damage caused by flood and torrential rain.