World supply and demand situation for oilseeds,oils, and meals

In recent years, the demand for meal has been relatively stronger than for vegetable oils. Thus, we have to get the meal demand if we want to determine the extent of oil production and the requirements of oilseeds. This is true although the average annual increase in world meal consumption has declined from 5.5% during the five seasons ended 1970–71 to probably 3.8% in the following five seasons. The share of soybean meal is predominating and ever increasing from 49% ten years ago to as much as 61% this season. In most seasons, including the current one, soybean oil output is determined by the more rapidly increasing meal demand. It is thus often in surplus supply, specifically at present. The marketing of soybean oil is becoming even more difficult as world supplies of low-cost palm oil and lauric oils are increasing more and more sharply. World supplies of oilseeds are developing in cycles of ca. seven years—three years buildup stocks and four years liquidation. The present expansion period, which ends this season, has been more pronounced owing to last season’s severe economic recession which also affected the consumption of meals and oils/fats. Present prospects for the next five seasons point to a slowing-down of the increase in world production of soybeans, soybean oil, and meal owing to a continuing sharp expansion of supplies of palm oil and lauric oils. This assumes that the general economic activity will more or less stagnate or show only a small expansion during this period.