煤炭和天然气发展趋势分析与中国机遇

全球煤炭总产量和消费量分别以4.8%和4.5%的年均增长率快速攀升,增速不仅超过了天然气,两者差距也呈逐年增大的趋势,但实际上这些不具有客观性.通过对2013年BP世界能源统计数据进行整理分析得出:在去除中国因素后,全球煤炭总产量和消费量较包括中国时的总产量和消费量大幅下降,其总产量和消费量的年均增长率分别下降至2.2%和1.0%,天然气总产量和消费量较包括中国时的总产量和消费量仅有些许减少,其总产量和消费量的年均增长率分别为2.7%和2.4%,天然气增速反超煤炭,实现逆转;中国虽然是以煤炭作为主要消费能源,但是并未影响中国天然气消费量以17.3%的年均增长率迅速提升;中国常规与非常规天然气储量丰富,具有良好的发展前景,推动中国天然气发展,符合当今能源发展趋势和低碳经济发展模式.

Analysis of the development trend of coal and natural gas and the challenge of China

The average annual growth rates of coal production and consumption in the world are 4.8% and 4.5%,which are larger than those of natural gas.At the same time,the gap between them enlarges year by year.However,these conclusions are not objective. Excluding the production and consumption of coal in China,the average annual growth rates of coal reduce to 2.2% and 1.0% through the analysis of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013,while the total production and consumption of natural gas only decline slightly,which are 2.7% and 2.4% and exceed those of coal.Although the coal is the main energy resource in China,the consumption of natural gas increases by 17.3% on average annually.The reserves of conventional and unconventional natural gas in China are abundant.Therefore China has huge potential and a good development promising.The development of natural gas in China meets the energy development trend and low-carbon economic development model today.