基于模糊ANP的海底管道失效风险综合评价

为更准确地评价海底管道失效风险,综合采用德尔菲法、模糊理论、网络分析法(ANP)和模糊综合评价法,首先,依据专家意见与事故统计数据,从腐蚀、自然因素、第三方破坏、材料等4个方面辨识管道失效风险源;其次,邀请领域专家评估管道失效概率,判断各风险因素相互影响的重要度;然后,通过模糊理论处理评估信息,使用Matlab软件完成极限超矩阵和全局权重向量的编程计算;最后,以南海荔湾某在役输气管道为例,进行模糊综合评估。结果表明:该在役管道的风险评价等级为较低;第三方破坏与腐蚀是海底管道失效的主要原因,与事故统计数据基本一致,验证了基于模糊ANP的失效风险综合评估的合理性。

Comprehensive evaluation of failure risks of submarine pipelines based on fuzzy ANP

Delphi method,fuzzy theory,ANP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were adopted in this paper in order to evaluate the failure risk of submarine pipelines more accurately. Firstly,efforts were made to identify the risk sources of pipeline failure from four aspects: corrosion,natural factors, third-party damage and materials according to experts' opinions and accident statistics. Secondly,experts of this field were invited to evaluate the failure probability of pipelines and the importance of each risk factor affecting each other. Then,the evaluation information was processed with fuzzy theory,and the limit hypermatrix and global weight direction were calculated by using the software of Matlab. Finally fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was carried out with an in-service gas pipeline in Liwan,South China Sea as an example. The results show that the risk assessment level of this pipeline is low,and the third-party damage and corrosion are the main reasons for the failure of submarine pipelines,which is basically consistent with the accident statistics,verifying the rationality of the comprehensive evaluation of failure risk based on fuzzy ANP.