基于系统动力学的废弃电池处理对电动汽车发展影响研究

新能源汽车是我国战略新兴产业之一,废弃电池回收处理关系到新能源电动汽车产业可持续发展,因此,开展电池回收处理对新能源电动汽车发展影响研究有一定的理论和现实意义。基于系统动力学理论和方法,分析了新能源电动汽车发展的影响因素,通过Vensim PLE软件绘制电动汽车保有量因果关系模型、存量流量模型,建立系统动力学方程和确定参数值,通过运行检验和历史检验来进行模型有效性验证。在检验了模型的科学性之后,进行系统仿真分析,探究了废弃电池回收处理以及电池以旧换新对电动汽车发展的影响。通过模拟分析,得出了废弃电池回收处理和电池以旧换新对新能源汽车发展都有正面促进作用的结论,并从政府及企业层面提出了相关改进建议。

Study on the Impact of Waste Battery Treatment on Electric Vehicle Development Based on System Dynamics

New energy vehicle industry is one of China’s strategic emerging industries.Waste battery recycling is related to the sustainable development of new energy electric vehicle industry.Therefore,it is of theoretical and practical significance to carry out research on the impact of battery recycling on the development of new energy electric vehicles.The factors affecting the development of electric vehicles are analyzed based on system dynamics.The causal relationship model and stock flow model of electric vehicle ownership are drawn through Vensim PLE software.System dynamics equation is established and parameter value is determined.Model validity is verified by running inspections and historical tests.After checking the scientificity of the model,the system simulation analysis is carried out.The effects of waste battery recycling and battery replacement on the development of electric vehicles are explored.It is concluded that the recycling of waste batteries and the replacement of batteries have positively promoted the development of new energy vehicles through simulation and analysis.And some suggestions for improvement are put forward at the level of government and enterprises.