天山各分区地震活动性与能量积累阶段关系初探

本文研究了天山各地震构造区的地震活动特征与所处能量积累阶段之间的关系，在此基础上分析了天山各分区当前地震危险性。初步得到处于不同能量积累阶段的天山不同地震构造区的地震活动特点及其所反映的能量积累状态。认为天山地区的地震活动性既受区域构造运动强度的影响，又受地震构造所处的能量积累阶段的影响。对于构造运动非常强烈的地区，正确判断其目前所处能量积累阶段，可以对未来地震震级上限有比较准确的判断；而对现今地震活动相对较弱地区所处能量积累阶段的判断，可使我们对潜在地震危险有较充分的认识。研究表明，南天山西段各区能量积累水平大都进入中、后期阶段，地震活动水平高，地震危险性明显高于北天山和中天山各区（段）。北天山各分区以及中天山地区能量积累多处于早、中期阶段．

A Preliminary Study on Seismic Activity and Stages of Seismic Energy Accumulating in Seismogenic Tectonic Areas of Tianshan

Using seismic parameters, characteristics of the seismic activity in various seismogenic tectonic areas of Tianshan were studiel. The areas are in different stages of seismic energy accumulation. Current seismic dangerous level of those areas were analyzed synthetically by rates of tectonic movement and characteristics of the seismic activity as well as recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes. We preliminarily studied characteristics of seismic activity in the different seismic energy accumulating stages. The result shows that characteristics of the seismic activity in various seismogenic tectonic areas of Tianshan are influenced not only by the regional tectonic movement but also by the energy accumulating stage of the seismic tectonics. In strong tectonic movement areas, it is important to estimate its stage of energy accumulating, in order to predicate the upper limit of potential earthquake magnitude. In the less active tectonic movement areas, estimating of the stage of energy accumulation will help us to recognize the dangerous level of the potential strong earthquake. The study shows that the seismogenic tectonic areas in southern Tianshan have reached to middle stage and late stage of energy accumulation, with higher seismic activity and seismic dangerous level than those in northern and middle Tianshan. The earthquake risk of southern Tianshan is up to Ms 7.0, while that of middle Tianshan is up to Ms 6.0 and that of northern Tianshan is only Ms 5.0 -6.0.