基于ANP-正态云模型的区域水环境承载力评价

针对区域水环境承载力评价中难以有效地呈现指标体系的网络关系和定量评价的不确定性问题,以北京市朝阳区为例,构建水资源驱动、水污染压力、水环境状态和生态功能响应的DPSR(驱动力Driving-压力Pressure-状态State-响应Response)逻辑关系,建立基于ANP(网络层次分析法,Analytic Network Process)-正态云模型的区域水环境承载力评价方法。结果表明:基于ANP-正态云模型的区域水环境承载力处于高承载水平,表征出2017年北京市朝阳区水环境承载力现状较好。其中,权重值占比和为48.93%的水功能区水质达标率指标和植被覆盖岸线指标与朝阳区水环境承载力指数聚类关系较明显,有可能是提升朝阳区水环境承载能力的关键因素,这与朝阳区"两轴两带三区"城市空间格局发展理念相符合。

Evaluation of regional water environment carrying capacity based on ANP-Normal cloud model

For the regional water environment carrying capacity (RWEEC) appraisal, it is a challenge to express network relations and uncertainty in quantitative evaluation. Thus, this study designed the RWEEC assessment method of ANP (Analytic Network Process)-Normal cloud model. This approach relies on the DPSR (Driving-Pressure-State-Response) logical relation, including water-driven, water pollution pressure, water-environmental state, and ecological response. This paper selected Beijing Chaoyang District as a study area. The results show that RWECC has a high bearing power calculation based on the ANP-normal cloud model. It characterized the situation of the better RWECC of Chaoyang in 2017. The weight of water quality standard-rated in the water-functional zone and vegetation-covered shoreline accounts for 48.93% in total. These indexes has a clustering relationship with the RWEEC index in Chaoyang, which may be the critical factor to improve the RWEEC of Chaoyang District. It conforms to the urban pattern development of "Two-axis,two-belt,and three districts.".